Strait of Hormuz Blockade Causes Persian Gulf Business Jet Flow Sharp Decline; but Muscat and Amman Did Not Absorb Diversion — Both Simultaneously Decline

Between April 1–21, 2026, Dubai OMDB business jet movements sharply declined (data shows extremely significant magnitude); Doha OTHH flow near zero. The market-expected alternative hubs Muscat OOMS and Amman OJAI did not absorb diverted flow — both also simultaneously declined notably. Aviation Week data shows March Middle East business aviation flights declined MoM but segment durations rose, hinting that the small number of still-operating aircraft chose to detour rather than reposition to regional alternative airports. OMDB's few remaining departure flights' average duration increased YoY, but average distance actually shortened — indicating detours added time cost but to closer destinations. Operators may be executing evacuation-style short positioning rather than routine business flights. The entire Gulf core airport departure volume saw extremely rare regional flow disruption — severity in recent years second only to the global flow collapse during COVID-19. Confidence ★★★ (KG events + AviGo dual cross-verification). OMDB/OTHH extreme lows may partly reflect data lag or OMDW diversion (note: whether OTBD, Doha's old airport, still has business jet operations since closing commercial in 2014 is questionable; diversion effect uncertain), but even accounting for these factors, the regional flow sharp decline trend is undeniable.