Post-Gulf Ceasefire Business Jet Repatriation Not Underway: OMDB Movements Notably Decline, OBBI Slowly Recovers From Zero, ESCAT Controls Still Restrict UAE Airspace

★★★ Dual cross-verification. After the April 8 US-Iran ceasefire, Gulf business jet repatriation progress is far below expectations. AviGo data shows OMDB post-ceasefire (April 9–26) weekly-average movements significantly below pre-ceasefire level (pre-ceasefire week ~41; post-ceasefire weekly average ~7). This seemingly anomalous phenomenon may relate to ESCAT airspace controls not relaxing or even tightening post-ceasefire — as of April 18, UAE airspace remains under ESCAT control with all flights requiring individual approval. Bahrain OBBI recovered from zero pre-ceasefire to weekly average ~5; Kuwait OKBK still zero. KG events confirm core barriers: ceasefire fragility evident, with reports of post-ceasefire violations. Security analysts explicitly warn operators to continue real-time risk assessment post-ceasefire; multiple business jets remain stranded outside the Gulf. Per Aviation Week, Middle East business aviation flight volume fell ~19% during the conflict period. For brokers and operators: Gulf-region business jet scheduling recovery timeline must be significantly extended; insurance and fuel costs remain elevated. Confidence: high — ESCAT controls, ceasefire fragility, AviGo flow data triple cross-verification. Specific reason for OMDB's even lower post-ceasefire movements pending further confirmation.