Late March Light Business Jet 'Safe Haven' Fails — YoY Decline Deteriorates from +0.9% in Early Month to -16.6%, Converging with Heavy Jets' -17.1%, Suggesting Systemic Shock Beyond Oil Prices Is Spreading

During March 1–7, 2026, light jets (Phenom 300/CJ3/PC-24) were YoY +0.9%, while heavy jets (Global 7500/Falcon 8X/G700) were YoY -7.0% — an elasticity gap of 7.9pp, consistent with the classic pattern of 'high oil prices impacting heavy jets first.' But by March 18–24, light jets plunged to -16.6%, nearly converging with heavy jets at -17.1% (gap only 0.5pp). Light jets going from positive growth to double-digit collapse in just two weeks indicates a systemic negative factor beyond oil prices emerged in mid-to-late March — possibly deteriorating macroeconomic expectations or lagged transmission of geopolitical shock. Brokers and operators should be alert: light-jet demand resilience has been breached, and all aircraft types face downward pressure in the short term. Confidence: ★★ (AviGo data complete; trend is clear).