Cyprus and Turkey Did Not See the Expected Business Jet 'Safe Haven' Surge — LCLK/LTBA/LTFM Daily Averages Actually Fell 22–27% During the Event Period, Suggesting More Dispersed Destinations for Middle East Business Jet Evacuations

Despite KG evidence showing a 19% YoY increase in Middle East-to-Europe charters during March 3–9 and a drop in parked Middle East business jets from 164 to 82, AviGo data for March 24 to April 1 shows LCLK daily average fell from 10.2 to 7.4 movements (-26.8%), LTBA/LTFM both dropped from 11.4 to 8.9 (-21.7%), and UDYZ plummeted 95.6%. This contradicts the intuitive expectation of a 'surge at alternative airports.' Possible explanations: (1) Late-March war escalation raised risk premiums across the entire eastern Mediterranean, pushing business jets further west to Iberia/Western Europe (consistent with Evidence 9: Faro +54%, Malaga +35%); (2) The early-March evacuation peak had passed, and late March entered a 'wait-and-freeze' phase. LTBA origin cities were predominantly Turkish domestic (Ankara 19 movements) and Moscow (7), rather than Middle Eastern cities, indicating Turkish business jet traffic is more domestically driven. Confidence: ★★ (AviGo four-airport data + KG evacuation events forming a meaningful contrast).